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Categories: Geoscience: Earthquakes, Mathematics: Statistics
Published AI model proactively predicts if a COVID-19 test might be positive or not


A new study shows machine-learning models trained using simple symptoms, demographic features are effective in predicting COVID-19 infections.
Published Finding faults deeply stressful


Evidence that a complete stress release may have contributed to the 2011 Tohoku earthquake that broke records. Both sedimentary formations above and below the plate boundary fault lie in the stress state of normal faults in which vertical stress is greater than maximum horizontal stress. The new data show good consistency with previous results above the fault -- at the boundary between the North American plate and the subducting Pacific plate -- suggesting that combining geophysical data and core samples to comprehensively investigate stress states is effective.
Published Landslide risk remains years after even a weak earthquake


Satellite observations have revealed that weak seismic ground shaking can trigger powerful landslide acceleration -- even several years after a significant earthquake.
Published Earthquake lab experiments produce aftershock-like behavior


Earthquakes are notoriously hard to predict, and so too are the usually less-severe aftershocks that often follow a major seismic event.
Published Exploring the deep: Drones offer new ways to monitor sea floor


Researchers have developed a novel method for measuring the earth's crust on the seafloor. A lightweight geodetic measurement device was mounted on a sea-surface landing unmanned aerial vehicle (UAV). The mobility of this new system will enable rapid, efficient collection of real-time deep seafloor information, which is critical for understanding earthquake risk, as well as various other oceanographic observations.
Published Monitoring 'frothy' magma gases could help evade disaster


Volcanic eruptions are dangerous and difficult to predict. A team has found that the ratio of atoms in specific gases released from volcanic fumaroles (gaps in the Earth's surface) can provide an indicator of what is happening to the magma deep below -- similar to taking a blood test to check your health. This can indicate when things might be 'heating up.' Specifically, changes in the ratio of argon-40 and helium-3 can indicate how frothy the magma is, which signals the risk of different types of eruption. Understanding which ratios of which gases indicate a certain type of magma activity is a big step. Next, the team hopes to develop portable equipment which can provide on-site, real-time measurements for a 24/7 volcanic activity monitoring and early warning system.
Published New statistical method improves genomic analyzes


A new statistical method provides a more efficient way to uncover biologically meaningful changes in genomic data that span multiple conditions -- such as cell types or tissues.
Published Using 1980s environmental modeling to mitigate future disasters: Could Japan's 3/11 disaster have been prevented?


On March 11, 2011, multiple catastrophes in Japan were triggered by the Great East Japan Earthquake, including the nuclear accident at the Fukushima Daiichi Nuclear Power Plant. This event, also known as the 3/11 disaster, is what is known as a compound disaster. Now that over a decade has passed since this event, researchers are investigating how to prevent the next compound disaster.
Published Report outlines plans for major research effort on subduction zone geologic hazards


Subduction zones, where one tectonic plate slides beneath another, produce the most devastating seismic, volcanic, and landslide hazards on the planet. A new report presents an ambitious plan to make major advances in understanding subduction zone hazards by bringing together a diverse community of scientists in a long-term collaborative effort, deploying new instrumentation in subduction zones, and developing more sophisticated and accurate models.
Published Water cutoff countermeasures using disaster emergency wells


Groundwater is considered both an environmental and industrial resource, but a new study indicates it is also an important resource in disaster prevention. Researchers conducted research surveys of 91 well owners and 328 welfare facilities affected by the 2016 Kumamoto Earthquake. The surveys clarified groundwater use following the earthquake and policy issues that could make the use of emergency wells more effective in the wake of future disasters. The surveys' findings provide useful data for city governments that have installed or are considering installing emergency wells.
Published Violent supershear earthquakes are more common than previously thought


About 14% of magnitude 6.7 or greater strike-slip earthquakes since 2000 have been supershear. That's 50% more than previously thought. Supershear earthquakes occur when a fault ruptures faster than seismic shear waves can travel through rock. The events were thought to be rare because scientists had mostly looked for them on land. The findings suggest that disaster planning assessments should include whether a fault is able to produce supershear quakes, which are potentially more destructive than other types.
Published Mathematical modeling suggests U.S. counties are still unprepared for COVID spikes



America was unprepared for the magnitude of the pandemic, which overwhelmed many counties and filled some hospitals to capacity. A new study suggests there may have been a mathematical method, of sorts, to the madness of those early COVID days.
Published Double trouble when 2 disasters strike electrical transmission infrastructure


One natural disaster can knock out electric service to millions. A new study suggests that back-to-back disasters could cause catastrophic damage, but the research also identifies new ways to monitor and maintain power grids.
Published Research reveals magma activity beneath Mount Edgecumbe


Magma beneath long-dormant Mount Edgecumbe volcano in Southeast Alaska has been moving upward through Earth's crust, according to research the Alaska Volcano Observatory rapidly produced using a new method.
Published Seismic sensing reveals flood damage potential


Rapidly evolving floods are a major and growing hazard worldwide. Currently, their onset and evolution is hard to identify using existing systems. However, seismic sensors already in place to detect earthquakes could be a solution to this problem. Researchers show that a seismometer can sense a flood, such as the devastating one that hit Germany in July 2021, up to 1.5 km away. This could act as an early warning to save lives and lessen damage. They also found that being able to measure the 'seismic footprint' of the flood provides information on its magnitude, velocity and trajectory in real time, which could be used for future flood protection.
Published Statistical oversight could explain inconsistencies in nutritional research


People often wonder why one nutritional study tells them that eating too many eggs, for instance, will lead to heart disease and another tells them the opposite. The answer to this and other conflicting food studies may lie in the use of statistics, according to a new report.
Published Report shows tectonics to be main driver of hillslope 'connectivity'


A new large-scale analysis of hillslope connectivity at the continental scale was recently published. The study gives new understanding of mechanisms that determine how effectively hillslopes drive floods and landslides, as well as promote the presence of wetlands.
Published AI predicts physics of future fault-slip in laboratory earthquakes


An artificial-intelligence approach borrowed from natural-language processing -- much like language translation and autofill for text on your smart phone -- can predict future fault friction and the next failure time with high resolution in laboratory earthquakes. The technique, applying AI to the fault's acoustic signals, advances previous work and goes beyond by predicting aspects of the future state of the fault's physical system.
Published Impact that killed the dinosaurs triggered 'mega-earthquake' that lasted weeks to months


Some 66 million years ago, a 10-kilometer asteroid hit Earth, triggering the extinction of the dinosaurs. New evidence suggests that the Chicxulub impact also triggered an earthquake so massive that it shook the planet for weeks to months after the collision. The amount of energy released in this 'mega-earthquake' is estimated at 10 to the exponent 23 joules, which is about 50,000 times more energy than was released in the magnitude 9.1 Sumatra earthquake in 2004.
Published Biomarkers used to track benefits of anti-aging therapies can be misleading, suggests nematode study


Researchers followed the birth and death of tens of thousands of nematode worms using the 'Lifespan Machine', which collects lifespan data at unprecedented statistical resolution. They found that worms have at least two distinct 'biological ages', and that these have consistent correlations between each other, suggesting the existence of an invisible hierarchical structure that regulates the ageing process. The findings challenge the idea of living organisms having a single, universal biological age. It also means mean that biomarkers used to assess biological age can be changed by interventions such as diet, exercise, or drug treatments without actually turning a 'fast ager' into a 'slow ager'. The study calls into question the use of ageing biomarkers -- what exactly are they measuring?